Cytokine signature and COVID-19 prediction models in the two waves of pandemics.

In Europe, multiple waves of infections with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) have been observed. Here, we have investigated whether common patterns of cytokines could be detected in individuals with mild and severe forms of COVID-19 in two pandemic waves, and whether machine learning approach could be useful to identify the best predictors. An increasing trend of multiple cytokines was observed in patients with mild or severe/critical symptoms of COVID-19, compared with healthy volunteers. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) clearly recognized the three groups based on cytokine patterns. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) further indicated that IL-6 discriminated controls and COVID-19 patients, whilst IL-8 defined disease severity. During the second wave of pandemics, a less intense cytokine storm was observed, as compared with the first. IL-6 was the most robust predictor of infection and discriminated moderate COVID-19 patients from healthy controls, regardless of epidemic peak curve. Thus, serum cytokine patterns provide biomarkers useful for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. Further definition of individual cytokines may allow to envision novel therapeutic options and pave the way to set up innovative diagnostic tools.

Clinical Outcome Prediction in COVID-19 Patients by Lymphocyte Subsets Analysis and Monocytes' iTNF-α Expression.

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, "SARS-CoV-2", was recognized as the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Several studies have explored the changes and the role of inflammatory cells and cytokines in the immunopathogenesis of the disease, but until today, the results have been controversial. Based on these premises, we conducted a retrospective assessment of monocyte intracellular TNF-α expression (iTNF-α) and on the frequencies of lymphocyte sub-populations in twenty-five patients with moderate/severe COVID-19. We found lymphopenia in all COVID-19 infected subjects compared to healthy subjects. On initial observation, in patients with favorable outcomes, we detected a high absolute eosinophil count and a high CD4+/CD8+ T lymphocytes ratio, while in the Exitus Group, we observed high neutrophil and CD8+ T lymphocyte counts. During infection, in patients with favorable outcomes, we observed a rise in the lymphocyte count, in the monocyte and in Treg lymphocyte counts, and in the CD4+ and in CD8+ T lymphocytes count but a reduction in the CD4+/CD8+ T lymphocyte ratio. Instead, in the Exitus Group, we observed a reduction in the Treg lymphocyte counts and a decrease in iTNF-α expression. Our preliminary findings point to a modulation of the different cellular mediators of the immune system, which probably play a key role in the outcomes of COVID-19.